Cox expects only a modest shift in the fuel mix of the UK used car parc during the next four years but stressed that the ICE share will increasingly be from ageing models.
The share of diesels (including mild hybrids) is expected to fall by 3% to a 30% share between 2024 and 2027, leaving it 14% down on the 2020-2023 car parc.
The share of petrols (including mild hybrids) is predicted to be relatively static but actually increase by 1% to 62% (the overall used car market is forecast to contract by 1.1%), leaving it 0.2% down on 2020-2023.
The share of EVs is tipped to rise by 2.5% in 2024 to 5.9% in 2027, up 184% on 2020-2023. The share of hybrids and plug-in hybrids is expected to rise by 1.0% to 2.8%, up 110% on 2020-2023.
Nothard recommended that dealers be mindful of diminishing ICE car supply and cautioned of further volatility in used EV prices, due to the introduction of cheap new models from brands such as BYD and Dacia, as well as sporadic price cuts by Tesla.
“Savvy dealers, if they haven’t already, need to give their stock profile serious consideration, especially as the ICE car parc is ageing year on year,” he said. “That trend is impacting availability and choice in vehicles up to four years old.